By Jim Bradshaw



Tropical Depression 13 brewing in the Gulf of Mexico has the potential to create major flooding problems along the Gulf Coast and inland.

Opinions on where the developing tropical system will wander over

the next week vary from meteorologist to meteorologist. Most of them think this

system will become Tropical Storm Lee, and expect to see heavy rainfall and

flooding somewhere along the north-central Gulf Coast.

The developing consensus is that this will be an extensive,

slow-moving system, capable of affecting the same areas for days with downpours,

stormy seas and rough surf conditions. Rough seas alone have the potential to

shut down rigs in the Gulf for an extended period.



After meandering in the Gulf today, it is possible that the system

will gradually turn to the northeast, making landfall along the coast of

Louisiana Sunday evening. It is important to note, however, that the track is

uncertain and could vary widely over the next few days. The depression is

currently south of a high pressure ridge that is not giving much in the way of

steering currents. This is also the reason for its very slow movement.

At 6 a.m. Friday the Tropical Depression was centered about 240

miles southwest of the Mississippi River with highest winds of 35 mph. It was

crawling to the northwest at 2 mph.

Gov. Bobby Jindal said he was concerned about the serious threat of

flash flooding in his state. Craig Taffaro, president of coastal St. Bernard

Parish, said some flood gates were being closed along bayous and residents were

being warned to brace for heavy rain. Still, in a parish that was nearly wiped

out six years ago by Katrina, Taffaro wasn't expecting a major event.

Under the current scenario system will help to pull cooler air down

into Louisiana, Texas and Oklahoma over the Labor Day weekend, ending a

summer-long heat wave. Southern Louisiana through southern Alabama is set to

receive 10 to 15 inches of rain, while higher amounts near 20 inches are

possible in the hardest hit areas. This could lead to a precipitation pattern

much like Hurricane Danny in 1997, except peak areas would receive less rain.

Unfortunately for Texas, the major models are not currently producing any rain

in the drought-stricken state, aside from areas bordering Louisiana.

The system can move just about anywhere. That movement includes

zigzags, loops, a 180-degree change in direction, a stall, and perhaps a slow,

steady straight path inland. The Friday morning prediction by the National

Hurricane Center is for the depression to move slowly to the northwest or north

for the next 24 to 36 hours, followed by a gradual turn toward the northeast.

Small craft warnings were issued from northwest Florida to Texas as

seas of at least 1 to 2 feet above normal were in the forecasts. Winds are

likely to push tides up to three feet above normal.



Temperatures in the Gulf are near record warmth, 88°F , which will

provide plenty of moisture for heavy rains, and plenty of energy to help the

system strengthen into a tropical storm. Most of the models predict will have

some motion to the west by Saturday, which would bring rains to the Texas coast

near the Louisiana border.



One computer model is predicting, the storm could intensify into a

hurricane if it remains over water long enough. Most of the other models predict

will move ashore over Louisiana by Sunday, limiting the storm's development to

just tropical storm strength.



In very simple terms, a tropical disturbance is a blob of

thunderstorms gathered in a place and under conditions that could allow further

development. A tropical disturbance becomes a tropical depression when a

distinct pattern of circulation can be seen but sustained wind speeds are 38

miles per hour or less. Disturbances become tropical storms and are given names

when they reach a sustained wind speed of 39 mph. When a storm reaches sustained

wind speeds of 74 miles per hour, it officially becomes a hurricane.



The size of this depression will require significant time for it to

reach hurricane strength.

According to a hurricane center chart, maximum sustained winds could reach 60

mph by Saturday, lower than hurricane strength of 74 mph.