Early signs say warmer, drier winter ahead

The Tri-City area can expect a mild winter this year with below-average rain and above-average temperatures, according to Andy Patrick, meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service’s Lake Charles office.
Patrick said Monday that the forecast is for January through March.
Normally, Patrick said, Morgan City has highs around 60 degrees and lows in the mid-40s during the heart of winter.
“You’d see probably a lot more days which will trend above normal as opposed to below normal, and once you get into February and March, the normal high temperatures will start going up,” he said of the forecast.
By March, the normal highs in the area will be more likely in the mid-70s and normal lows in the 50s.
No more freezes, at least short term, are anticipated.
“It looks like, at least in the near term, we’re not seeing that trend that we’re going to have a lot more freezing temperatures, big Arctic air masses coming down,” Patrick said.
In fact, the current La Niña weather pattern is more favorable than the El Niño weather state.
La Niña usually comes with warmer and dryer conditions in the southern United States, while colder and stormier atmosphere is associated with El Niño, Patrick said.
While this year was the most active hurricane season on record, Patrick said he does not know if there is a correlation between hurricane season and the type of winter that will follow.
“A lot of folks like to tie in winter weather with the hurricane season, and in some areas that might work,” Patrick said. “That might be true, but so far that hasn’t really panned out this year.”
Rather, the winter conditions are more linked to the climate phase (La Niña or El Niño), he said. This year, the climate phase was La Niña for both hurricane season and the current winter season.