Forecast: Active hurricane season

The 2021 hurricane season will be only about half as active as last year’s, according to one of the most-watched tropical weather forecasts. But that’s still enough to make it one of the most active in a century if the predictions come true.
The Colorado State Weather and Climate Research program predicts 17 named storms for the 2021 season. Four of those storms will become major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 mph, the forecast says.
The 2020 season battered the Atlantic-Gulf basin with 30 named storms, including six major hurricanes.
The Colorado State forecast (and the 1981-2010 average for each category in parentheses) calls for:
—17 named storms (12.1).
—80 days with a named storm (59.4).
—Eight hurricanes (6.4).
—35 days with hurricanes (24.2).
—Four major hurricanes (2.7).
—Nine days with a major hurricane (6.2).
—Accumulated cyclone energy, a measure of a storm’s wind speed and potential for storm surge damage, 150 (106).
Colorado State’s forecast, which grew to prominence over the last 30 years under the leadership of Dr. William Gray, uses a variety of statistical measures to develop its early-season predication each April.
One of the key factors is the El Niño-La Niña cycle of water temperatures in the southern Pacific, which has a big influence on weather in the United States. El Niño is a pattern of relatively high water temperatures, while La Niña is the opposite.
El Niño patterns tend to inhibit hurricane formation and intensification. La Niña patterns are associated with more active tropical weather.
The most recent La Niña held sway last year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says it showed signs of fading in March.
“But the continued presence may tip the odds toward a more active severe weather season,” according to the NOAA website.
Colorado State issued a warning along with its April forecast: “Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”
Louisiana felt the full impact of the most active hurricane season on record in 2020.
For the first time, five named storms made landfall in Louisiana: hurricanes Laura and Delta, both of which came ashore in Cameron Parish, and Zeta, which came ashore near Cocodrie; and tropical storms Cristobal and Marco.
Hurricane Laura was especially destructive after it blew onshore Aug. 27 near Creole in Cameron Parish with 150 mph winds, the strongest storm to strike Louisiana in more than 150 years. Laura caused widespread destruction to buildings and to the area’s electrical grid, damage that stretched north into central Louisiana.
St. Mary Parish had to live with power outages during the storm season and some minor damage.
Flood control projects have been undertaken in the parish to prevent damage from storm surge.
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers completed the North Bend flood control project before the 2020 hurricane season and prevented a repeat of flooding in the Centerville area that occurred during Hurricane Barry.
The Bayou Teche Flood Control Structure was nearing completion during the height of the storm season. But the structure still lacked the barge gate designed to be moved into place to block storm surge from the Charenton Canal. Before Hurricane Delta, sheet pilings were installed to block the gap, preventing flooding in the Franklin-Garden City-Centerville area.